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Risk remains on the defensive ahead of North American trading

Equities are still looking subdued on the session with tech the laggard after the Snap warning earlier, as risk trades are pulling back some of their advance from yesterday. Here’s a look at some of the moves today:

  • S&P 500 futures -1.1%
  • Nasdaq futures -1.7%
  • Dow futures -0.7%
  • Eurostoxx -0.9%
  • Germany DAX -0.9%
  • France CAC 40 -0.9%
  • UK FTSE -0.3%

As much as there was some optimism late last week (into the closing stages at least) and early this week, it is best to be reminded about the challenging backdrop that has contributed to the drag in risk trades since April.

Yes, we may be overdue to a correction. I mean seven straight weeks of declines for US stocks is definitely up there in terms of the sale being rather stretched. But we certainly are getting a reminder today of all the major themes at play in markets.

Inflation pressures are still running rampant as evident by European PMI readings today. Recession risks are continuing to grow by the day and that is evident by the extremely poor UK PMI readings today. And central banks are continuing to look towards tightening policy as evident by Lagarde’s commitment in her remarks earlier today as well.

Looking elsewhere, bonds are also bid as risk aversion grips markets in general. 10-year Treasury yields are down 4 bps to 2.82%.

In FX, the dollar is sitting more mixed with light changes against most major currencies. The euro and yen are gaining slightly with the former benefiting from Lagarde’s comments and the latter from safety flows into bonds. The pound is the laggard as markets pare back BOE rate hike bets following flattish economic activity seen in May from the PMI readings.

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