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Macquarie trading desk’s predictions for ASX 200 rebalance

Moving into the ASX 50 could be Mineral Resources, OZ Minerals and Lynas Rare Earths, the note said. Macquarie also assigned convictions to each move; it was pretty confident about Mineral Resources entering ASX 50 but had “low” conviction to the other two.

It said Block Inc – which has lost 37 percent odd in the last month – would fall out of the ASX 50.

ASX 100: Magellan, Star Entertainment could fall off

All of Macquarie’s bets for ASX 100 changes had low conviction. But among its deletions were Magellan Financial Group, which has lost funds under management in recent months, Star Entertainment Group amid government scrutiny into casinos, and packaging manufacturer Orora Ltd.

ASX 100 additions could include: Shopping Centers Australia, Whitehaven Coal amid high coal prices, and enterprise software business TechnologyOne.

ASX 200: 12 changes

ASX 200’s the index whose rebalance has the greatest effect on passive flows of all Australian equity indices (simply because more funds track it than just the ASX 50 or ASX 100). And Macquarie had the longest list of changes for it.

It was pretty confident Platinum Asset Management, Tyro Payments and PolyNovo would leave the ASX 200. On Appen and Codan’s departure, Macquarie rated its conviction as “medium”. Also on the departures list was EML Payments, where the bank had “low” conviction.

The three most likely additions to the ASX 200 were: Core Lithium, Johns Lyng Group and New Hope Corporation.

Additions in the medium-conviction land were West African Resources and Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT. Lastly, lithium explorer Ioneer had a smaller than others chance of getting into the ASX 200.

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